چاپ صفحه |  صفحه نخست سامانه |  نویسندگان |  اطلاعات تفضیلی |  دانلود مقاله | دانشگاه علوم پزشکی تبریز |
| نویسنده ثبت کننده مقاله | مدینه عباسی |
| مرحله جاری مقاله | تایید نهایی |
| دانشکده/مرکز مربوطه | بیماری های عفونی و گرمسیری |
| کد مقاله | 84627 |
| عنوان فارسی مقاله | Effect of Climate Change on the Distribution of Anopheles stephensi in Hormozgan Province, Iran: A MaxEnt Analysis for 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s |
| عنوان لاتین مقاله | Effect of Climate Change on the Distribution of Anopheles stephensi in Hormozgan Province, Iran: A MaxEnt Analysis for 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s |
| نوع ارائه | پوستر |
| عنوان کنگره / همایش | اولین کنگره تغییر اقلیم و سلامت |
| نوع کنگره / همایش | ملی |
| کشور محل برگزاری کنگره/ همایش | Iran (Islamic Republic) |
| شهر محل برگزاری کنگره/ همایش | دزفول |
| سال انتشار/ ارائه شمسی | 1402 |
| سال انتشار/ارائه میلادی | 2024 |
| تاریخ شمسی شروع و خاتمه کنگره/همایش | 1402/12/09 الی 1402/12/10 |
| آدرس لینک مقاله/ همایش در شبکه اینترنت | https://ccchr2024.dums.ac.ir/fa/ |
| آدرس علمی (Affiliation) نویسنده متقاضی | Infectious and Tropical Diseases Research Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran |
| نویسنده | نفر چندم مقاله |
|---|---|
| مدینه عباسی | اول |
| عنوان | متن |
|---|---|
| خلاصه مقاله | Background: In 2022, WHO reported 249 million new cases of malaria globally. Despite efforts to control malaria in Iran, a resurgence occurred in 2023, attributed to various factors. Anopheles stephensi Liston, the primary malaria vector in southern Iran, poses a significant threat to malaria control in Asia and Africa. Climate change's impact on disease transmission, particularly malaria, underscores the importance of considering it in control strategies. Efforts to predict the spread of malaria vectors using meteorological data and GIS analysis are crucial for planning control interventions. Ecological niche modelling and the maximum entropy model play vital roles in forecasting malaria vectors' distribution and environmental suitability, such as An. stephensi. This study aimed to gather data on the distribution of An. stephensi in Method This study utilized field studies and database searches to collect An. stephensi distribution data in Hormozgan Province. Environmental and bioclimatic data for current and future years were obtained from reputable sources, and GIS software was used to extract province-specific information. Ecological niche modeling was conducted using MaxEnt software to evaluate potential changes in species distribution, with model performance assessed using Receiver-Operating Characteristic analysis. The resulting habitat suitability model was produced using ArcGIS. Result: The studies conducted over the last three decades in Hormozgan Province identified 101 locations where An. stephensi was reported. Geographic coordinates were prepared and used to map the species distribution. The MaxEnt model output maps show suitable ecological niches for An. stephensi at present and in the future under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The model's validation using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve indicates its strong performance and accuracy, with Area Under the Curve (AUC) values ranging from 0.81 to 0.85 for training data and 0.62 to 0.72 for test data, affirming the model's validity. Conclusion: The study emphasizes the significance of biogeography and biogeology in predicting growth conditions, current and future distribution, and changes in biological range. The MaxEnt analysis suggests that the distribution area of An. stephensi is expected to change in the coming years under different climatic scenarios. The study identifies influential environmental variables in the model, such as isothermality and temperature, and highlights their impact on the species' distribution. The environmental variables, such as average precipitation in the driest season, were found to have the most significant impact on the model. The study underscores the importance of understanding the ecological differences among species and the types of variables used in the analysis |
| کلمات کلیدی | Anopheles stephensi, MaxEnt, Climate change, Hormozgan, Iran |
| نام فایل | تاریخ درج فایل | اندازه فایل | دانلود |
|---|---|---|---|
| climate chenge 2.jpg | 1403/02/17 | 122118 | دانلود |
| ccchr2024-01710176_2_240212141004.pdf | 1403/02/17 | 492211 | دانلود |
