| Background Worldwide, both the incidence and death rates of pancreatic cancer are increasing. Evaluation of
pancreatic cancer burden and its global, regional, and national patterns is crucial to policy making and better resource
allocation for controlling pancreatic cancer risk factors, developing early detection methods, and providing faster and
more effective treatments.
Methods Vital registration, vital registration sample, and cancer registry data were used to generate mortality,
incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) estimates. We used the comparative risk assessment framework
to estimate the proportion of deaths attributable to risk factors for pancreatic cancer: smoking, high fasting plasma
glucose, and high body-mass index. All of the estimates were reported as counts and age-standardised rates per
100 000 person-years. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were reported for all estimates.
Findings In 2017, there were 448 000 (95% UI 439 000–456 000) incident cases of pancreatic cancer globally. The agestandardised
incidence rate was 5·0 (4·9–5·1) per 100 000 person-years in 1990 and increased to 5·7 (5·6–5·8) per
100 000 person-years in 2017. In 2017, 232 000 (210 000–221 000; 51·9%) of 448 000 (439 000–456 000) total incident
cases occurred in males. There was a 2·3 times increase in number of deaths for both sexes from 196 000
(193 000–200 000) in 1990 to 441 000 (433 000–449 000) in 2017. There was a 2·1 times increase in DALYs due to
pancreatic cancer, increasing from 4·4 million (4·3–4·5) in 1990 to 9·1 million (8·9–9·3) in 2017. The agestandardised
death rate of pancreatic cancer was highest in the high-income super-region across all years from
1990 to 2017. In 2017, the highest age-standardised death rates were observed in Greenland (17·4 [15·8–19·0] per
100 000 person-years) and Uruguay (12·1 [10·9–13·5] per 100 000 person-years). These countries also had the highest
age-standardised death rates in 1990. Bangladesh (1·9 [1·5–2·3] per 100 000 person-years) had the lowest rate in 2017,
and São Tomé and Príncipe (1·3 [1·1–1·5] per 100 000 person-years) had the lowest rate in 1990. The numbers of
incident cases and deaths peaked at the ages of 65–69 years for males and at 75–79 years for females. Age-standardised
pancreatic cancer deaths worldwide were primarily attributable to smoking (21·1% [18·8–23·7]), high fasting plasma
glucose (8·9% [2·1–19·4]), and high body-mass index (6·2% [2·5–11·4]) in 2017.
Interpretation Globally, the number of deaths, incident cases, and DALYs caused by pancreatic cancer has more than
doubled from 1990 to 2017. The increase in incidence of pancreatic cancer is likely to continue as the population ages.
Prevention strategies should focus on modifiable risk factors. Development of screening programmes for early
detection and more effective treatment strategies for pancreatic cancer are needed. |