Identification of Visceral Leishmaniasis-Susceptible Areas using Spatial Modelling in Southern Caucasus

Identification of Visceral Leishmaniasis-Susceptible Areas using Spatial Modelling in Southern Caucasus


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دانشگاه علوم پزشکی تبریز
دانشگاه علوم پزشکی تبریز

نویسندگان: احد بازمانی

کلمات کلیدی: Spatial modelling; visceral leishmaniasis; weights of evidence; logistic regression; fuzzy logic; southern Caucasus

نشریه: 55504 , 63 , 8 , 2016

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نویسنده ثبت کننده مقاله احد بازمانی
مرحله جاری مقاله تایید نهایی
دانشکده/مرکز مربوطه بیماری های عفونی و گرمسیری
کد مقاله 60179
عنوان فارسی مقاله Identification of Visceral Leishmaniasis-Susceptible Areas using Spatial Modelling in Southern Caucasus
عنوان لاتین مقاله Identification of Visceral Leishmaniasis-Susceptible Areas using Spatial Modelling in Southern Caucasus
ناشر 4
آیا مقاله از طرح تحقیقاتی و یا منتورشیپ استخراج شده است؟ خیر
عنوان نشریه (خارج از لیست فوق)
نوع مقاله Original Article
نحوه ایندکس شدن مقاله ایندکس شده سطح یک – ISI - Web of Science
آدرس لینک مقاله/ همایش در شبکه اینترنت http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/advanced/search/results

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This study explores the application of spatial modelling techniques to generate susceptibility maps for a neglected zoonotic disease, visceral leishmaniasis (VL), in an endemic area in southern Caucasus that includes Iran, Armenia and Azerbaijan. The social and physical environment of southern Caucasus has been mainly characterized by the presence of several factors that are strongly associated with VL, which has caused a significant number of infections during the past decade. Three popular spatial modelling techniques, consisting of the weights of evidence, logistic regression and fuzzy logic methods, were evaluated and trained using a study area in north-western Iran where an inventory of highly infected areas and high-quality evidential factors was available. Model performance was assessed using the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) approach. According to the results of these assessments, the fuzzy logic method withc=0.5 was chosen for the prediction of VL incidence in southern Caucasus. The susceptibility map generated using the fuzzy logic method indicated that VL followed a spatial pattern at the conjunction of the three countries, which suggests that the prevalence of VL in southern Caucasus is socio-ecologically dependent.

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نویسنده نفر چندم مقاله
احد بازمانیسوم

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zph12325.pdf1395/12/092113613دانلود